小型モジュール炉：原子力産業の新たな成長路
専門家の視点
小型モジュール炉（SMR）は、低炭素の安定電源への需要増を背景に投資が拡大し、データセンターの増設とエネルギー安全保障が追い風になっています。一方で、今後5年に運転開始が見込まれるのは少数にとどまり、本格的な展開は2030年代半ば以降、2040年までに18.65GWという見通しです。実体として確認できるのは、カナダ・米国・英国の初期プロジェクトが今後の成長を左右するという点と、初号機の予算内・予定通りの完工が後続案件のコストを25〜30%下げうるという条件です。つまり、期待が先行しているのは政治と投資の層であり、実行を担うのは初期プロジェクトの実証段階です。工場生産と反復展開という手段が示される一方、規制審査の期間や失敗時の扱いは本文では触れられていません。再生可能エネルギーの拡大と石炭火力の閉鎖で安定電源が細り、供給管理が難しくなる中、SMRはその穴を埋める選択肢として語られています。次に見るべきは、加・米・英の初号機が工期と予算を守れるかという一点です。ここでの遅延は、2040年までの18.65GWという数字そのものを押し下げます。
This blog is based on the recent Frost Sullivan analysis, “Small Modular Nuclear Reactor Industry, Global, 2025–2040,” authored by Manoj Shankar, Industry Analyst, Energy Buildings Practice. Rising demand for low-carbon baseload power is increasing investment in small modular reactors (SMRs), particularly as data centers expand and countries focus on energy security. This investment is moving pilot projects through regulatory review, although only a few units are expected to begin operating over the next five years. Deployment could accelerate in the mid-2030s, with 18.65 gigawatts (GW) expected online by 2040. This growth now depends on the first projects in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Delivering them reliably and within budget could lower costs by 25% to 30% for later projects. Factory fabrication and repeat deployment could support these cost reductions. Discover the investments, projects, and partnerships influencing the future of the small modular reactor market.Download the Full Analysis Listen to the podcast to explore where SMRs could be deployed and why the performance of the first projects matters. Growth in renewable energy and the closure of coal-fired plants are reducing baseload power on the grid. Lower baseload capacity can make the grid harder to manage and affect security of supply. SMRs could address this need by providing steady, low-carbon power. Renewed interest in nuclear power is creating opportunities for established reactor companies. New developers, backed by private equity and technology investors, are also entering the industry. Their entry is increasing competition among technology providers. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine placed energy security higher on the political agenda. Europe’s dependence on Russian gas led to sharp price increases for industrial and residential customers. Supply difficulties also increased interest in domestic energy sources. For SMRs to gain wider adoption, developers must address four requ
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