専門家見解｜中国の新CCUS目標は信頼できるが、その影響は今後の展開次第
専門家の視点
中国が国家計画で初めてCCUSに具体的な数値目標を設定した点は、政策の質が「宣言」から「測定可能な期待値」へ移行したことを示しています。年1000万トンのCO₂注入目標は、これまでの実証段階から商業規模への転換点を明確にした数字です。ただし、この目標が達成されるかどうかは、輸送・貯留インフラ、監視・検証制度、持続可能な商業モデルという三つの要素に依存します。 過去の論点では、CCSを「使うべき場所」と「過剰依存を疑うべき場所」の区別が指摘されていました。今回の目標は石油・ガス部門に限定されているため、この区別を踏まえた選択的な適用なのか、部門横断的な拡大の起点なのかはまだ判断できません。 中国の計画実行能力が高いことは確かですが、今回の目標は「行動への転換点」ではなく「第一信号」に過ぎません。次の観測点は、地域クラスターの具体化と、関連する政策・インフラ投資が発表されるかどうかです。実行主体が明確になり、実証から商業化への段階が示された時点で、この目標の信頼性は初めて検証可能になります。現時点では、数値化された期待が先行し、その裏付けとなる制度的枠組みの提示が待たれる構造です。
The Global CCS Institute has described China s first quantified CCUS objective, set out in its 15th Five-Year Plan for the Oil and Gas Sector, as a constructive policy signal, while noting that wider deployment will depend on supporting policy, infrastructure and commercial frameworks. China s new target of 10 million tonnes of annual CO₂ injection from CCS and CCUS projects by 2030 provides a credible benchmark for the next phase of deployment in the country s oil and gas sector, the Global CCS Institute said today. The 15th Five-Year Plan for the Oil and Gas Sector (2026-2030) is the first Chinese policy document to include a quantified CCUS objective. It follows considerable progress in CCUS demonstration and project development across oil and gas, coal, power and chemicals over the past five years. The target is consistent with the growing CCUS ambitions of China s major oil and gas companies. The Plan also calls for regional CCUS clusters, technology development and stronger standards. Its wider significance will depend on how these ambitions are supported by policy, infrastructure and commercial frameworks. “China s decision to put a number against CCUS is meaningful. It turns general policy support into a measurable expectation and provides a credible benchmark for the oil and gas sector. The focus now is delivery. Continued progress will depend on projects operating reliably at scale, supported by transport and storage infrastructure, robust monitoring and verification, sustainable commercial models and clear policies that support sustained investment. China has a strong record of translating planning commitments into action, and this target can provide a foundation for broader deployment , said Jarad Daniels, CEO of the Global CCS Institute. The Global Status of CCS 2025 report identified China s 2026-2030 planning period as an important indicator of the country s future CCUS direction. The new target is an encouraging first signal. The Institute will conti
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