速報 – 水素レポート2026年版 – 分析 – IEA
専門家の視点
中東紛争が水素関連製品の生産・貿易に与える実体的な打撃を、IEAが数値で示した分析です。中東は世界の水素生産の約6分の1を占め、アンモニア貿易の4分の1超、メタノール貿易の45%近くを担う主要プレイヤーですが、紛争による操業停止とホルムズ海峡の封鎖で供給が寸断されました。この結果、特にアジア諸国が天然ガス輸入経由で被る影響や、肥料・精製品市場の価格高騰が顕在化しています。 記事の「物語」としては、紛争のグローバルな波及効果を強調することで、水素関連市場の地政学的脆弱性を浮き彫りにしています。しかし、ここで「期待」されているのは、本来であれば水素の脱炭素効果や技術進展の評価のはずです。ところが現実には、化石燃料由来の水素が依存する国際貿易の寸断という「手段」の崩壊が、脱炭素という「目的」を度外視した形で語られています。 比較基準の恣意性としては、紛争前の活動水準を「正常」と前提し、復旧後の世界が同じ構造で続くかのような暗黙の仮定が置かれています。また、省略された利害関係者は、肥料高騰による食料生産コスト増を被る農家や、新興国の消費者です。
IEA (2026), Global Hydrogen Review 2026, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2026, Licence: CC BY 4.0 The Middle East is a major producer of hydrogen-based products, and the conflict has strongly impacted their production. The Middle East is home to around one-sixth of global hydrogen production, the majority dedicated to the production of chemicals, fertilisers and refined oil products. The region accounts for more than 10% of global refining capacity, ammonia and urea production, and close to 17% of methanol production. Several refineries and petrochemical plants have halted operations due to supply disruptions and the impossibility of exporting their products or to military attacks, which in some cases have damaged hydrogen production units. Restarting operations and reaching pre-conflict activity levels will take weeks and even months in the case of damaged facilities. The consequences of the conflict reach far beyond the Middle East as the region is a major player in global trade for hydrogen-based products. Much of the production output of the region is exported. The region makes up over one-quarter of global trade in ammonia, almost 40% of urea trade and almost 45% of methanol trade, and one-third of its refining capacity is export-oriented. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted the supply of all these products. Port infrastructure outside the Persian Gulf has also been hit by attacks, further limiting export capabilities. The production of hydrogen-based fuels outside the Middle East has been affected, particularly in Asia, where countries are very dependent on natural gas imports from the Middle East – one-quarter of ammonia production in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan uses natural gas imported from the region. As a consequence of these disruptions, global markets for fertilisers, refined products and chemical products are suffering shortages and price volatility. Global fertiliser markets have been particularl
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