エネルギー危機、EUの電化推進を一層加速させる—分析—IEA
専門家の視点
IEAの分析は、EUの電力の約70%が国内の低排出源から供給されている一方、最終エネルギー消費のうち電力は25%未満であり、約3分の2を化石燃料に依存しその80%以上を輸入している現実を実証しています。ホルムズ海峡閉鎖という危機を契機に、電化推進の論理を強めている点は明確です。しかし、このナラティブには二つの見過ごしがあるでしょう。第一に、電化のコスト競争力を「電力価格と化石燃料価格の比率」という単一指標で評価しており、各国・産業ごとに異なる税制・補助金・系統接続料の複雑な実態を十分に反映していません。第二に、電化を「EU全体で」進めるという主語の下で、加盟国間の歴史的なエネルギー政策の差異や、産業構造の違いによる負担の偏りが省略されています。結果として、危機対応という緊急性の高いフレーミングによって、制度設計や社会的受容性といった長期的な課題が前景化されにくくなっています。日本企業やGX人材にとっては、EUの電化市場が拡大する一方で、各国の政策リスクと補助金依存型のビジネスモデルの脆弱性を織り込んだ戦略が求められます。
Nicholas Salmon, Energy Modeller Oskaras Alšauskas, Energy Modeller Sangitha Harmsen, Energy Modeller Stéphanie Bouckaert, Head of Demand Sectors Unit Commentary — 09 June 2026 IEA (2026), The energy crisis creates even stronger impetus for EU electrification, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-energy-crisis-creates-even-stronger-impetus-for-eu-electrification, Licence: CC BY 4.0 Electrification is central to meeting the European Union’s goals on energy security, competitiveness, affordability, and emissions reductions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the risks of over-dependence on imported fuels and concentrated supply routes, making the case for electrification even stronger. In the EU, around 70% of electricity generation is already supplied from domestic, low-emissions sources. And yet end-users (industry, buildings and transport sectors), source less than one quarter of their energy consumption from electricity. Today, around two-thirds of end-use energy consumption relies on fossil fuels, of which the EU imports more than 80%. This commentary is the first in a series examining the case for electrification in the EU, identifying cost competitiveness and areas where targeted policies could catalyse change. To make electrification cost-competitive, electricity prices need to fall below a threshold ratio relative to the price of fossil fuels. Because most electrification options are several times more efficient than conventional alternatives, they can be cheaper to operate than conventional fuel-based technologies even when electricity costs more per unit of energy than the fuel they replace – i.e. a ratio greater than one. EU countries today face very different price ratios. These differences are driven by historical choices in energy system design, energy taxation, and natural resources. They differ not only between countries, but also within them, as subsidies, taxes, and grid connection fees can vary substantially between indu
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